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What is the current state of ENSO?

Current climate state: ENSO phase is currently neutral or declining La Niña.

Are we in a El Nino or La Niña 2021?

Forecasters say there’s a nearly 90% chance that La Niña conditions will be in place from December 2021 to February 2022. It’s not a total surprise: NOAA announced earlier this month that La Niña conditions had already developed, with an 87% chance they would remain in place during that three-month period.

Is this a La Niña year?

— It’s official: a La Niña is here! In a recent statement from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, forecasters confirmed that La Niña conditions did indeed develop within the past month and have a 87 percent chance of continuing throughout this upcoming winter from December of 2021 though February of 2022.

What is El Nino current?

El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño has an impact on ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents, the health of coastal fisheries, and local weather from Australia to South America and beyond.

What’s the summer going to be like in 2021?

United States Summer Forecast – Stormy Weather According to the extended forecast in the 2021 Farmers’ Almanac, summer should be stormy, with a greater-than-average frequency of thunderstorms for a large portion of the country. Many of these storms will be strong, particularly over the eastern third of the nation.

What is ENSO neutral?

ENSO Neutral. During ENSO neutral conditions, surface trade winds blow westward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Blowing against the ocean’s surface, these winds result in a westward current. El Niño. During El Niño conditions, the usually present east to west winds weaken and an anomalous west to east flow …

Is this winter El Niño or La Nina?

La Niña will be joining us for the winter again, according to federal forecasters. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its official winter outlook on Thursday, and confirmed that La Niña conditions will be in place from December to February.

How is the ENSO index for 2018 calculated?

These plots show current 2018 values of various indices vs. seven events since 1948. A multi-variate index of ENSO which uses SST, winds, SLP, and OLR. It is calculated using the JRA55 reanalysis dataset and the NCEI OLR. Produced at NOAA PSL.

What’s the current status of the ENSO system?

The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with ENSO-neutral. ENSO-neutral is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance).*. From early June 2018 through May 2019, near-to-above average SSTs have been present across most of the Pacific Ocean.

How is the ENSO index related to SST anomaly?

ENSO Indices. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) standardized anomaly of the mean sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. traditional ENSO index. correlates strongly with SST anomaly indices.

Where does the ENSO precipitation index take place?

ENSO Precipitation Index. The index is based on rainfall anomalies in two rectangular areas, one in the eastern tropical Pacific (10°S-10°N, 160°E-100°W) and the other over the Maritime Continent (10°S-10°N, 90°E-150°E).